Archive for March, 2008

MVP Fallacies

Tuesday, March 18th, 2008

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I’ve read more than my fair share of MVP articles lately. In fact, I make it a habit to search ‘MVP’ on Google News couple of times per week and check out what the latest trend is (T-Mac seems to be the hot commodity right now). While usually there is a good point or two in these articles, there always seems to be at least one major fallacy that ends up destroying the validity of the argument. Today I will list the most common fallacies that people make when talking, writing, and thinking about the MVP race.

1) The word value in the Most Valuable Player title is very open to interpretation. Therefore not too much importance should be attached to it. Some people think value is measured by how much the situation would be changed without the ’object’ (use to be Kobe fans, now LeBron), others believe ‘valuable’ things must come from very respected sources (the Dirk Nowitzki connundrum). Being such a subjective word, this creates a real problem when people need to decide matters based on its definition. Therefore in the end, rather than assuming your definition of the world ‘valuable’ is what should be the basis for the MVP award, you should also explain why that interpretation of the word ‘valuable’ has more merit in the basketball context than any other.

2) There should definitely be a consistency to the MVP award. Therefore those that argue “Kobe deserved it couple of years ago, but just because a mistake was made in not giving him the MVP, doesn’t mean LeBron shouldn’t get it this year” are commiting a major reasoning fallacy. If the panel that picks the MVP award begin using different criterias for selecing their MVP every year, then the title will truely Lose Weight Exercise/”>Lose Weight Exercise credibility. So the argument that should be made is not that LeBron should be MVP. Instead the case should be made against why individuals who have the most impressive stats and whose team would suffer most without them – dont get MVP.

 3) There needs to be consistency in an MVP argument. You can’t argue that LeBron has a much more horrible team than Kobe’s, and then dismiss people who say the East is weak. If you want to compare teams then you should do it against teams in your own conference, or just suck up the fact that the East IS really weaker. Of course, LeBron’s MVP chances really fall when you compare a team like the Cavaliers and the 76ers and realize that there is only a 4 loss difference between them. 

4) Stats are flawed by nature, they should never be the main focus of an MVP discussion. Yes LeBron does average more assists per game but does that mean he’s a better passer? Not at all. It could be that LeBron’s teammates are more proficient at hitting open jumpers, it could mean that the L.A. team has a tendency to pass twice after a Kobe drive and dish to set up the perfect jumper, or it could perhaps mean the exactly opposite. At the end of the day, its not as strong an argument as it might look on paper.

5) When you compare a player on a very strong team to a player on an average team – you need to consider things besides wins. When a great team is winning and killing opponents, the importance of stats really goes down. If the Lakers are up 10 throughout the game and Kobe’s teammates are doing a good job, does that mean that Kobe should still try at all costs to get his stats? Absolutely not. A smart player, an MVP player, will realize that he should step up only when he needs to. Just because a bad team struggles alot and always needs its best player to play 100% it shouldn’t take away from a great player on a great team just having to be average for 50% of the time because that is what benefits his team most. Great players should not be punished for their team being succesful!

6) A team’s bad record without the player is not necessarily a good thing to mention in MVP arguements. The whole point of the MVP award has to do with how much value a player brought to his team. So if you sat out 25 games with a broken leg - thats on you as the franchise player, and the fact that the team went 0-25 without you is something you shouldn’t hold any responsibility for. Especially if the injury was something minor, then you should be accounted for every loss your team got.

7) The strength of a players team often comes into play when determining an MVP. As hard as it is valuing a single player, valuing  a whole team is that much harder – especially when you need to consider the team without its star player. Therefore no real evaluation is accurate enough to make a sound judgement on it. Can you definitely say the trio of West, Chandler, Stojakovic is worse than Odom, Gasol, Fisher? I wouldn’t be confident enough in making such a statement and relying on it to prove that what Paul has done is much more impressive than Kobe. In fact, the strength of a team without its best player is a very speculative area that should be left to crazy bloggers like me and not used to make MVP decisions.

Putting it all together

At the end of the day, it is clear that one single argument is not enough to decide the MVP. It cant be based solely on best team, best stats, best player even. It is a combination of all the little intricacies that make up a regular season in the NBA - but of course you knew that already. So the tough part is knowing how much to value each of the criterias. For me, Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have accumulated amazing statistics and win percentages on a very tough conference with teams that in my oppinion are not so much worse than the likes of Cleveland – and my choice of MVP would go to the player that leads his team to the best record at the end of the season. Of course, in making this statement I have broken just about every rule I spent ages writing above….but then again thats the whole point, in the NBA MVP debate, no one is clear of slipping up.

 

A Message to Time Travelers: Stay Away!

Monday, March 10th, 2008

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Everyone in this world, more or less, knows how their life is going to play out. You might pursue this career over that, you might marry a brunette instead of a blonde, you might die of cancer instead of old age…but at the end of the day, life is so damn predictable. You don’t wake up everyday and wonder whether frogs are going to fall from the sky, or if aliens are going to land and share this amazing technology with us. Instead, some days we get excited about little things such as some weird creature we hadn’t seen before , or if we’re lucky once in a blue moon there is good progress towards some exciting future developments. However, at the end of the day none of these developments are LIFE CHANGING.

Until now…News in recent months have hinted at a very exciting possibility: time travel. Now, THAT is what I’m talking about when I say “Life Changing”. Yes, the odds are that its not going to happen in our life time or our grandson’s grandsons lifetime, if ever. However, just the possibility of it happenening is something truely exciting. It’s difficult to understand what this would exactly mean for us, because wild science-fiction movies are usually the only instances where such possibilities are played out for our entertainment, but even these science-fiction novels and movies never really analyze the implications to every-day lives that these discoveries will create. Given that scientifically there is a chance of this actually happening, I think it would be wise to get prepared of how different life could be. It never hurts to “Be Prepared” as the Boy Scout motto goes, and to prepare you for when that time comes, here is how life would be if indeed time travel occured.

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The way the current technology works, is that there is a chance of a ‘time door’ opening, allowing visitors from the future (assuming they have sufficiently advanced technology) to visit our planet. As this would be the first ‘door’ to open in the history of mankind, it would mark the furthest point back in time people of any time could visit. So, unless mankind becomes extinct at some point, or some terrible disaster wipes all documentation of such a ‘door’ opening in 2008 or future research suggests time travel would lead to terrible catastrophes, then essentially people from the year 390124 could and should visit us. You would have to think that thousands and who knows even millions of years later, mankind could develop some truely mindboggling inventions and why shouldn’t a time machine be one of them. So all that requires from us is that this ‘door’ we open in 2008, is enough of a opening for future smart people from the year 1958309753 to work with to establish contact with us.

 Now lets get down to what this will mean. A person visiting from essentially the latest point in time could bring with him infinite news/developments/technology. We can in this way, jump thousands of years in progress. Imagine for a second if we were to go back to caveman days and showed them cars, televisions, airplanes etc. That is similar to the impact people from the future visiting us would have. So one day your checking the news and reading about the Microsoft/Yahoo acquisition talks, and then as you surf abit more in the tech section you read about some breaking news that has just transpired. Headline reads: “People from the future have arrived, they have offered the cure to all illnesses, little pills that givc us immortality and removes the necessity to eat or drink anything.” In a few minutes, the whole world that took thousands of years of steady progress and calculated achievements to develop – will have completely been uphauled.

 The question then becomes: if the future does solve all our problems, then what will be left for us to do? We will have everything we want, nothing to worry about – life will be…perfect? At the beginning this is what it will seem like. Sick and poor people will no longer be sick and poor, the concept of poverty will cease to exist, and people will no longer have to ‘work’. This last point could create major issues. Fine, we won’t need any more companies producing anything because it is assumed that millions of years from now, there will be cheap machines that can create whatever you want with some simple inputs. But even with infinite resources, our world still needs some hard labour. Even if that problem is solved with robots, there will still need to be some ‘people’ that work (right?)- world leaders, police forces, scientists that produce this future technology, everyone in the entertainment industry, shops and stores of some sorts, babysitters etc – how would you motivate these people to work, remember people don’t need money anymore with high-tech advancements solving all problems (is this perhaps why the supreme being created our world with limited resources?).

There certainly will still be crime and terrorism, because poverty is not always the reason for such things. Of course, more and more technology can be brought from the future to combat all these problems.. Like drugs that remove the anger from psychopaths, and police intelligence so smart it prevents bad things from ever happening ala “Minority Report”. But perhaps you can see a dark pattern developping here, and it is similar to those science fiction movies where ultimately technology fails us. Utopia simply can’t happen when everything in the world is unnatural. 

Furthermore, even if the implementation of future technology solves all our problems – what reason would we have to live? We have infinity to live, but yet there is nothing that hasn’t been done or needs to be done. Life perhaps would be sweet for the first 5 or 10 years where everyone in the world is on holiday and enjoying everything and anything with no worry in the world. But then that all too familiar feeling would start to kick in. You know the feeling you got towards the end of the summer holidays in school where you are getting bored of having nothing but free time.. There would be no progress because all progress has been made, there would be no change because all change has been implemented. So what would be the purpose of anything? There would be a million of entertainment sources, and things to do but at the end of day when you’re going to bed and cLose Weight Exercise/”>Lose Weight Exercise your eyes…there will be that realization that it all kinda feels empty without the mystery, without the wondering of the unknown, about all the imagination and possibilities in your head about the future. It would be like watching the most amazing movie/sports match ever possible..but you already know how its going to end. That kind of realization would ultimately crush the human spirit. Alot of what drives us in this world is that in some small, perhaps almost insignificant way we are changing the world and responsible for its progress. Like imagine the guy who invented the paper clip, he might not be the most famous or important person in the world, but I’m sure that his life was great knowing that he had just singlehandedly set a legacy and changed the world.

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All in all, while there would be amazing short term benefits, in the long run time travel would be a terrible thing for humankind. Just like it is incredibly stupid to take a drug that gives you short term pleasure at the cost of life long repercussions – time travel should similarly be kept away from.  The way towards a utopia is through sustained development: education, smart economic systems, and politics that is communist in ideal but capitalist in approach (commitalism?). 

Hopefully, people thousands of years from now read this, and never enter that portal that would land them in our untouched and perfectly legit world. Then truely, I would will have saved mankind! 

PS: Large Hadron Collider time travel readers are also banned.