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The NBA Finals that everyone and their grandads wanted (and expected for oh..about the last 4 months) has finally become reality. The two most recognizable franchises of the NBA (Boston’s Leprechauns and the Laker Girls), the two most gifted players of the last decade (Lamar Odom and Ray Allen- not even kidding about this one), and the two ugliest humans living creatures on the planet (Sam Cassel and DJ Mbenga) will square off battling exclusively in a “how-Kobe-Bryant-will-be-remebered-throughout-history” 7 game series. Let’s have a look at some of the more hidden keys that will decide the outcome of this series.

Home Court Disadvantage

I dont know if this theory has ever seen the light of day, but I feel strongly that the Celtics having home court advantage is in fact a disadvantage here. With a series with as much hype/history/emotion/importance as this one - and with a buildup as epic as a WWE pay-per-view  - it is hard to imagine any one of these two teams winning the first two games, and hence a 1-1 split is really the only outcome that I foresee whether the game is played in Los Angeles, Boston, or Baghdad (ummm actually in Iraq, the series might come to an early end…and I’m not talking about a sweep if you know what I mean).

Hence, these Finals arent really a 7 game series with home court advantage to Boston like everyone believes….it is a 5 game series with LA having the home court advantage. By Game 3 all the hype will have died down after the American public will have realized that a Boston-LA Finals wasn’t the answer to all their problems and that they do in fact still have to lose about a 100 pounds, and get proper health care, and stop getting into stupid wars, and Vote for Obama (SPONSORED ADVERTISING), and stop watching “The Closer” (highest rated Cable series of all time…WTF).

Lets not forget that in the NBA Finals the game structure is 2-3-2, this means that after LA steals one game in Boston, they just have to win their games at home, where they are undefeated in the post-season, and they will be champions!

Key Matchups

Trevor Ariza vs Paul Pierce:

Ariza hasn’t seen much action since being acquired from the Orlando Magic due to his injury, but he proved in the games he did play that he was a great fit in the triangle offense - and that goes beyond the prerequisites of being able to watch Kobe shoot contested 30 footers over 2 people without showing any sign of frustration . His biggest strength is obviously his defense - a really athletic and mobile defender with long arms, Ariza is sure to get significant minutes trying to contain Paul Pierce. Pierce, an LA native, always seems to have his best games in his hometown. So this will be a very crucial matchup that is bound to give one of the two teams a distinct advantage.

 (Sidenote: Imagine if the Lakers had a game in Boston and imagine all Laker players were from Boston and had homes and families there and got home cooking, a nice days rest in their own bed, and had family at the game the next day…would this mean that the Lakers would have pretty much stolen home court advantage without even playing a game…?)

Ronny Turiaf vs Glen Davis:

This is a heck of a matchup in terms of which of these two players has the bigger chest. One of the modern cliches of the NBA is the importance of having this ‘energy guy’ come off the bench to instantly ’spark’ your team. Are we talking about the NBA here or some electronic engineering convention. Anyways assuming we buy in to this general assumption, whichever of these two players ends up shouting more, dancing more, and drinking more Gatorade could in the end decide who ends up with the championship rings.

Kobe Bryant vs Kobe Bryant:

Which Kobe Bryant will emerge this June as he enters the most important series of his life (even more important for him than his series of court hearings in Colorado I would imagine). Back in November I wrote the following:

“In fact, it is no question that after several NBA titles, consecutive scoring titles, All-NBA, All-Star, All-Defensive Team awards– it is in fact these last remaining years of his career that will define who he really is. Is he really the next Michael Jordan, or will he be yet another one of the wanabe’s that just couldn’t live up to the expectations. Only the future will reveal Kobe’s true worth.”  

The future is now for Kobe as he is more than equipped with whats needed to be champions. Based on the way the Celtics played LeBron and the Cavs, history suggests Boston will try to make Kobe’s teammates beat them rather than the Black Mamba himself. Will Kobe be able to relinquish the Finals MVP, great stats, global glory, and be finally be able to prove he’s the ultimate team player?

Coaching

Doc Rivers  and Phil Jackson are rated on complete opposite spectrums of where they should be. Doc is, by what I have witnessed, a terrible coach. His previous seasons and horrific records aside, this year in the playoffs when everyone from player to shot-clock reseter is put to the ultimate test - he has failed miserably. From being forced to elimination games against the lowly Hawks and Lebron-less Cavs, to not being able to give his team an inch of confidence or strategy heading into opposing teams’ arenas, to not being able to get the best out of his tried and tested superstars, to making horrible calls on the sideline by benching the likes of Leon Powe and Glen Davis while forcing the return of E.T. more than the greedy execs in Universal Studios must have ever attempted. 

Phil Jackson, meanwhile, the most succesful coach in basketball continues to be underappreciated. His throne like seat, his wise-cracks and flirting with Craig Saiger, his cool poise, the witty laugh-out-loud comments about his players, the outrageous books and movie analogies he gives to his players, and that almost too-casual whistle to get his players’ attention make us forget what a genious mastermind he is. You might not notice it, but the player rotations, the controlling of Kobe, the trust of the bench, the way he spots out in crucial points in the game who out of the stars should exploit the Triangle, the inserting of Sasha to close out games….all of these are intangibles that another coach might very easily miss out, or not handle or execute correctly..perfectly. But with Phil, even if his team goes down 17 or 20, the players, fans, and everyone associated with basketball knows that they are not out of it - and this is just as much because of Phil as it is because of Kobe.

Heart

This series will ultimately come down to which team shows more heart. Desire, passion, will, spirit, craving, lust - those feelings will determine which out of these two evenly matched teams end up on top. We all know that on center stage, for a championship, tradition and legacies on the line - both teams will be ready to go. But the emotions mentioned above go beyond just ‘wanting it’, it necessites the ability to go to extremes. It might mean Kobe not resting in the fourth quarter and running solely on adrenaline, it might mean Kevin Garnett being a bastard for once in his life and shouting at his teammates, it might mean Lamar Odom and Ray Allen stepping the **** up and imposing their will above their inconsistent tendencies, and you know what…it might even mean Sam Cassell refusing to check into the game because deep down he knows he will just hurt his team!

Win and go…wherever 

The 2008 NBA Finals will not be decided by the 82% chance of winning if so and so has home court and the series score is this and that and if the big three score over x amount of points. The 2008 NBA Finals will not be decided by the past meetings, or by what stats geeks have crunched up on their Excel sheets, and even not by what Magic Johnson or Larry Bird had for lunch on gameday. The 2008 NBA finals will be decided by 2 or 3 key matchups, coaching, the home court ‘disadvantage’ paradox, and a whole lot of heart.

(Lakers in 5)

Tags:2008, celtics, lakers, nba finals, preview